Given the catastrophic event towards the end of last year which has had a detrimental effect on York & Selby, I question the impact on property prices and the property market in these areas and you might be surprised with the results.
Over the last sixteen years York has flooded on a number of occasions, the main ones that spring to mind are in the years 2000 (November), 2007 (June) & 2012 (September).
2000 saw one of the worst floods ever recorded, the Ouse reaching 5.5 metres high above normal level. The flood of 2012 reached levels of 5.07 metres and the highest level reached at the end of 2015 was 5.14 metres higher than normal.
Cross-referencing these dates with the land registry housing index and forward-dating a year, it is quite evident that the floods have had little impact on the York and Selby property market.
Below show three graphs & data-sets (taken from the Land Registry housing index) illustrating sales volume & average property prices in the area following the floods.
Land registry house price index November 2000 – October 2001
From the above figures we can deduce that the flood of 2000 did little to quell the growth of the property market in York & Selby, quite the opposite in fact. Average selling prices increased by 16.77% over the course of the year, not forgetting the housing boom that occurred in the early 2000’s which may distort the above results.
Land registry house price index June 2007 – May 2008
Once again the above results show very little change in the average selling price across the board save for 0.9% drop illustrating that the flood of Summer 2007 had little impact on the housing market as well as sales volume over the course of the year.
Land registry house price index September 2012 – August 2013
Following the Autumn 2012 flood, the above figures once again show little difference citing a 0.58% increase in average sales price over the year and property sales volumes remaining buoyant.
To further illustrate this point the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors published an interesting article of their findings of the effect of flooding on property prices as well as discussing the impact on insurance policies (see link below)
Plans are already going ahead for property developer Persimmon Homes to build 650 homes on the Germany Beck site (Fulford, York) from March 2016 despite recent events.
Locals have fought these plans since planning permission was given in 2007 down to this site being of historic importance featuring one of the major battles of 1066. With that in mind the next few months will certainly be a very interesting time for the York & Selby property market but based on historical data I don’t expect housing prices to decline significantly as a result of what has transpired over the last few weeks.
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